JFSP Completed Projects
You may search JFSP Project Information by the following: Project Number, Title, Principal Investigator, Cooperators or key words contained in a brief description of the project.
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Modeling surface winds in complex terrain for wildland fire incident support | |
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Project # 03-2-1-04; Principal Investigator: Mark Finney | |
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One major source of uncertainty in fire behavior predictions is spatial variation, especially variation in the range of 10 to 100 m, in the wind fields used in fire models. Mountainsides, valleys, ridges, and the fire itself influence both the speed and direction of wild flows. This causes uncertainty because surface wind variations cannot be predicted by synoptic forecasting methods or on-site observations and are therefore not available to fire modelers. While some tools exist, they have limited ability to resolve wind flows in steep topographic gradients. Scientists working on this problem will use recently available commercial computational fluid dynamics software to develop a methodology for using the commercially available software tools, quantify the effect of high resolution surface wind data on fire behavior predictions from the FARSITE software package, and address the fundamental science question of the practical potential for modeling fire-induced changes to wind fields. Final Report |
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Evaluation of Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Mitigation Methods and Development of Decision-Support Tools | |
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Project # 03-1-4-14; Principal Investigator: Paul Santi | |
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Debris flows can be one of the most hazardous consequences of wildland fires in the wildland-urban interface. The flows can occur with little warning, are capable of transporting large material over relatively gentle gradients, and may develop momentum and impact forces that cause considerable destruction to structures (and people) at risk. However, little is known about which debris flow mitigation measures are effective and under what conditions varying approaches may be appropriate. This study is evaluating the effectiveness of existing approaches and to provide guidelines for the selection of appropriate designs based on parameters that are easily defined after wildland fires. The conditions under which various mitigation measures are effective will be used to develop short-term and long-term response tools. Other documents include: Rapid Response Decision Support Tool for Debris-Flow Mitigation |
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Decision Support Methods for Prescribed Fire | |
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Project # 01-1-7-14; Principal Investigator: Donald MacGregor | |
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The development of a prescribed fire plan is a challenging problem that involves the consideration of a number of factors, including the natural resource management objectives to be met, the risks associated with escape, environmental quality objectives such as smoke management, and public/personnel safety. However, the concept of risk and uncertainty is poorly defined in the context of prescribed fire planning. Researchers contend that prescribed fire planning is inherently a problem of risk assessment and decision making under uncertainty. They will apply decision and risk science principles to prescribed fire decision making and planning, and develop a field oriented software prototype of a prescribed fire decision support tool based on these principles. Other documents include: |
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Techniques for Creating a National Interagency Process for Predicting Preparedness Levels | |
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Project # 01-1-7-06; Principal Investigator(s): Gerry Day and Neal Hitchcock | |
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A critical operational need exists for dispatch coordinators, fire managers and agency administrators to determine preparedness levels on a national, multi-agency basis. The preparedness planning processes now in place resulted from mandates and direction following the Yellowstone Fires in 1988. Today, however, the country requires an enhanced and standardized preparedness level forecasting system that is proactive and can respond to emerging situation as well as disastrous and tragic fires along with critical resource shortages we now face along with future changes in fire policy and management. The Joint Fire Sciences Program funded this National Preparedness Levels Study Project to address these challenges by creating a blueprint, the National Preparedness Level (NPL) Business Model. Developed by an interagency team of business experts and technical specialists, the model was developed using a structured business process approach to design and build a National Preparedness Level Planning System. |
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Using the NED decision support system to improve fuels management decision processes | |
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Project # 01-1-7-03; Principal Investigator: Michael Rauscher | |
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Recent fire history in the United States has increased the pressure on fire managers to show they are making ecologically sustainable, socially acceptable, and economically feasible decisions. The scope and complexity implicit in supporting decisions that directly affect fire management is unprecedented. Scientist efforts are directed at expanding the existing NED decision support system so that it can be used in fire management decisions. This modification will help managers to assess and reduce the risk of fire hazard to human life, reduce financial loss of property from a fire incident, and provide evaluation of the impact of various fuel manipulation/reduction methods on future fire behavior and ecosystem health and function. |
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Predicting Lightning Risk | |
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Project # 01-1-6-08; Principal Investigator(s): Sue Ferguson and Miriam Rorig | |
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Lightning causes most wildfires in the western United States and is a major cause of fire elsewhere. Simple predictions of Lightning Activity Level do not accurately determine fire ignition potential because most lightning is accompanied by significant precipitation. Scientists are adapting a methodology to assess the risk of dry lightning so that it can be incorporated into fire preparedness and planning. Fire weather forecasters will be able to use these results to improve predictions of lightning caused fire ignitions. Also, the algorithms can be applied to historical data, allowing assessments of dry lightning activity over time and space. Benefits include improved fire preparedness and resource allocation during the wildfire season and improved assessment of risk for longer term (5-10 year) planning horizons. Predicting Lightning Risk website. |
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Assessing the Value of Mesoscale Models in Predicting Fire Danger | |
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Project # 01-1-6-07; Principal Investigator(s): Jeanne Hoadley, Dr. Sue Ferguson, Dr. Scott Goodrick, Larry Bradshaw and Paul Werth | |
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Numerical weather models are being relied on more and more to develop fire weather forecasts and predict fire behavior and fire danger. Their accuracy in these applications, however, has heretofore been unknown. The purpose of this project was to study model predictions during the 2000 fire season to identify the effectiveness of mesoscale weather models in predicting fire danger and related fire weather and to integrate the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) with a fine scale numerical weather prediction model (MM5). A
summary of the case study can be found at: |
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Development and implementation of a system for the prediction of fire-induced tree mortality | |
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Project # 00-1-1-06; Principal Investigator: Brett Butler | |
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This research resulted in the development of a stand-alone executable version of the model FireStem. FireStem predicts species and diameter dependent mortality of the tree stem cambial tissue as a function of fire intensity and duration. The model includes both thermal and mortality modeling research findings. Research indicates that FireStem accurately predicts mortality for 75% of the test cases and could form the foundation of a comprehensive tool for predicting whole tree mortality caused by the combined effects of fire-induced injury to the roots, stem, and canopy of trees. Fire Stem User Guide The FireStem website includes downloads and articles. |
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Wildland Fuels Management: Evaluating and Planning Risks and Benefits | |
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Project # 99-1-3-16; Principal Investigator(s): Anne E. Black, Carol Miller, and Peter Landres | |
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The goal of this project was to develop methods to help wildland fire managers design long term, landscape scale management plans. Although wildland fire managers have a full spectrum of strategies available for reducing fuels, they lack tools for applying these strategies at landscape scales. This project designed, tested and delivered two tools, BurnPro and Fire Effects Planning Framework (FEPF), that allow managers to calculate and incorporate information on risks and benefits of fire into appropriate land management planning processes. You can visit the project website at: http://leopold.wilderness.net/research/fprojects/F001.htm Other documents include: |
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Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Lightning and Fire Occurrence in Two Rocky Mountain Wilderness Areas | |
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Project # 99-1-3-28; Principal Investigator: Matthew G. Rollins | |
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Changes in fire size, shape, and frequency under different fire-management strategies were evaluated using time series of fire perimeter data (fire atlases) and mapped potential vegetation types (PVTs) in the Gila – Aldo Leopold Wilderness Complex (GALWC) in New Mexico and the Selway–Bitterroot Wilderness Complex (SBWC) in Idaho and Montana. Analyses of fire atlases provide baseline information for evaluating landscape patterns across broad landscapes. Proactive fire and fuels management will be needed to restore fire regimes in each wilderness complex to within natural ranges of variability and to reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfire in upper elevations of the GALWC and nearly the entire SBWC. Other documents include: |
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Modification and validation of fuel consumption models for shrub and forested lands in the SW, PNW, Rockies, Midwest, SE, and AK | |
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Project # 98-1-9-06; Principal Investigator: Roger Ottmar | |
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Land managers across the country are increasingly expected to use fire as a landscape-level fuel treatment mechanism to improve ecosystem health and reduce the likelihood of catastrophic fires. Planning and execution of these prescribed fires require managers to operate fuel and fire management decision-support systems that rely heavily on the ability to assess fuel consumption. Although a tremendous amount of research has gone into the development of fuel consumption models, little work has been directed toward shrub-dominated ecosystems (i.e. chaparral, sage, and palmetto/galberry) and to fuel consumption during the smoldering phase of fires. Through this effort scientists plan to develop and distribute a fuel consumption software product designed for national use. |
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Fire Modeling for Fuel and Smoke Assessment | |
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Project # 98-1-8-02; Principal Investigator: Patricia L. Andrews | |
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The scope of this project was to develop, improve, and link fire models and incorporate them into systems designed for use by fire and land managers. BehavePlus, FARSITE and FlamMap were expanded and improved. Advances were made on Surface fire, Crown fire, Post frontal combustion, Emissions and dead fuel moisture. Further information at: http://fire.org/nav.mas?pages=JFSP&mode=1 |
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Characterizing Historic and Contemporary Fire Regimes in the Lake States | |
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Project # 98-1-5-03; Principal Investigator: David Cleland | |
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The Upper Great Lakes States of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan comprise one of the most densely forested regions of the nation with 41% of the area (50.5 million acres) forested. Much of this forested acreage is considered commercial timberland and there are high expectations of continued resource development. At the same time, the area is one of four national centers for recreational or second home development. The unique and highly dispersed interface of wildland-human dominated environments in the region pose an extraordinary challenge to managing fire risk. Researchers are synthesizing available information on historic fire regimes, documenting how fire regimes have changed since European settlement, and mapping landscape ecosystems of varying susceptibility to disturbance across the region. Information resulting from this work will be made available in published form and over the Internet to aid managers in assessing wildfire susceptibilities of lands they are responsible for. |
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