JFSP Projects in Progress
You may search JFSP Project Information by the following: Project Number, Title, Principal Investigator, Cooperators or key words contained in a brief description of the project.
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05-4-3-10: FuelCalc: A tool for calculating wildland fuel quantities and qualities and supporting fuel management decisions |
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Elizabeth Reinhardt USFS, RMRS |
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A need exists for a simple computer program to determine surface and canopy fuel quantities (load, bulk density, depth) and qualities (fire behavior fuel model, fire-carrying fuel type) from a variety of fuel inventory data sources. In addition, fuel managers need help analyzing the potential effects of silvicultural treatments on surface and canopy fuels. Models of fire behavior and effects already exist, but the means to create inputs to those models is still lacking. Programs already exist to monitor fuel treatments over time, but not to simulate the potential effects of fuel treatment before implementation, so that managers can choose the best available treatment option. We propose to develop FuelCalc to carry out these calculations, incorporating both widely accepted methods for quantifying surface fuels and newly completed research funded by the JFSP for quantifying canopy fuels. FuelCalc supports fuel treatment decisions by simulating effects of a wide range of silvicultural treatments on surface and canopy fuels, and provides linkages to stand visualization, fire behavior and fire effects programs that rely on estimates of fuel characteristics. FuelCalc will deliver the best available fuel science information and research results in order to support fire science applications. |
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05-4-3-15: Integrated Analysis for Management of Fire and Fuels, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecological Processes, and Conservation of Sensitive Aquatic Species |
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Charlie Luce |
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This project will develop a spatially explicit aquatic/fire decision support tool and integrate it with the Fire Effects Planning Framework (FEPF). FEPF is an existing JFSP funded tool that provides managers with the ability to spatially identify and track where fire may provide ecological and social benefits and where it poses risks to accomplishing management goals. FEPF is used at a variety of planning scales to assist in land management plan revision, Fire Management Plan updates, landscape scale fuels treatment planning, and incident support. FEPF currently defines benefits based primarily on vegetative stand condition and considers watershed and fisheries as constraints. With the proposed decision support model the potential benefits to aquatic resources can also be considered. We anticipate significant opportunity for strategically locating fuels treatment to simultaneously resolve both terrestrial and aquatic issues. By integrating this decision support tool into FEPF, which is pursuing an aggressive science delivery and application course, we are able to place this new ability directly and immediately into the hands of managers, facilitating both hazardous fuels reduction and restoration of critical species habitats. |
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04-3-1-05: Best Management Practices for Fuels Management in Sub-tropical Pine Flatwoods and Tropical Pine Rocklands |
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Joseph O’Brien |
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Funding was provided for a workshop to develop a common template for the development of Best Management Practices synthesis. The template will be used for future synthesis on Best Management Practices. |
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03-1-1-08: Modeling vegetation phenology for the assessment of present and future fire hazard potential |
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Patricia Andrews |
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Vegetation cures over the course of a summer. Understanding the timing and process of curing is basic to understanding the onset and progression of fire season. For example, the live fuel moisture model in the National Fire Danger Rating System requires “greenup” information to initiate the model. However, examination of vegetation across extensive landscapes is time-consuming and expensive. Remote sensing is a promising method of obtaining similar information across large areas very rapidly with much lower labor costs. Scientists in this project will develop a plant phenology model that can assess the current status of vegetation in near real-time from remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. This information can be used to initiate the live fuel moisture model and to populate other fire behavior prediction models. |
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03-1-1-22: Fire Climate interactions and predicting fire season severity in the Mediterranean Climate areas of California, Southern Oregon, and Western Nevada |
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Carl Skinner |
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Climate strongly influences the occurrence and extent of fires and it would be valuable for fire- and land-managers to be able to predict problematic fire seasons well in advance. For example, it would help agency administrators allocate funds and other management resources to the appropriate geographic areas and land management units. However, mangers must currently wait until the climatic pattern for the current year is well established before the potential fire severity becomes apparent. Scientists working on this problem will focus on the Western portion of the U.S. that has a fire-prone “Mediterranean” type of climate with hot, dry summers. They will use inter-annual and inter-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and link the patterns to different degrees of fire season severity. |
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03-1-2-02: Monitoring trust as an evaluation of the success of collaborative planning in a landscape-level fuel hazard reduction treatment project in the Bitterroot Valley, Montana |
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Alan Watson |
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The National Fire Plan is the impetus for an acceleration of wildland fuels treatments to reduce fire risk. One such treatment is the landscape-level project initiated by the Bitterroot Ecosystem Management Research Project (BEMRP) in western Montana. To ensure support from adjacent landowners and the general public, the land managers need to understand and measure the factors contributing to trust between land management agencies, in this case the USDA Forest Service, and the public. This project will develop and initiate a baseline measure of trust among communities and residents adjacent to the Bitterroot National Forest. |
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03-1-4-14: Evaluation of Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Mitigation Methods and Development of Decision-Support Tools |
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Paul Santi |
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Debris flows can be one of the most hazardous consequences of wildland fires in the wildland-urban interface. The flows can occur with little warning, are capable of transporting large material over relatively gentle gradients, and may develop momentum and impact forces that cause considerable destruction to structures (and people) at risk. However, little is known about which debris flow mitigation measures are effective and under what conditions varying approaches may be appropriate. This study is evaluating the effectiveness of existing approaches and to provide guidelines for the selection of appropriate designs based on parameters that are easily defined after wildland fires. The conditions under which various mitigation measures are effective will be used to develop short-term and long-term response tools. |
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03-2-1-03: Characterization of Firefighter Safety Zone Effectiveness |
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Bret Butler |
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Firefighters are required to play close attention to fire behavior and have safety zones readily available in case of unexpected fire behavior. However, safety zone location and size are often a matter of anecdotal evidence, personal experience, and untested models. This is particularly troublesome for younger firefighters that might not have sufficient experience to make adequate judgments. This project will enable scientists to obtain measurements of energy transfer as naturally burning fires burn into and around clearings that may be characterized as firefighter safety zones. Results will provide improved tools to enhance the knowledge of experienced firefighters, train younger firefighters, and develop recommendations and specific guidelines regarding effective safety zones. |
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03-2-1-04: Modeling surface winds in complex terrain for wildland fire incident support |
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Mark Finney |
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One major source of uncertainty in fire behavior predictions is spatial variation, especially variation in the range of 10 to 100 m, in the wind fields used in fire models. Mountainsides, valleys, ridges, and the fire itself influence both the speed and direction of wild flows. This causes uncertainty because surface wind variations cannot be predicted by synoptic forecasting methods or on-site observations and are therefore not available to fire modelers. While some tools exist, they have limited ability to resolve wind flows in steep topographic gradients. Scientists working on this problem will use recently available commercial computational fluid dynamics software to develop a methodology for using the commercially available software tools, quantify the effect of high resolution surface wind data on fire behavior predictions from the FARSITE software package, and address the fundamental science question of the practical potential for modeling fire-induced changes to wind fields. |
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03-4-1-04: Developing an Analysis and Planning Framework for District-Level Fuels Treatment Projects |
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Alan Ager |
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This project will provide specialists with a framework for simulating alternative treatment scenarios through time and capturing the differences between various scenarios in terms of fire risk, insect mortality, visual impacts, financial outcomes, and other attributes. |
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01-1-1-06: Historical wildland fire use: Lessons to be learned from twenty-five years of wilderness fire management |
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Mathew Rollins |
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Since the early 1970s, fire management plans (currently known as Wildland Fire Use or WFU) have been in effect in four large Park Service and Forest Service wilderness areas in the west to allow naturally ignited fires to burn under prescribed conditions. The goal of these plans was to mitigate fire hazard resulting from extended fire exclusion and restore wildland fire as a natural disturbance process at broad scales. There is much to be learned from this 25-year experiment in restoring natural fire but the landscape-scale effects have been little studied. Scientists will conduct landscape-scale experimentation and simulation based on existing fire history databases, field inventories, GIS databases, and 25 years of well-documented WFU in these wilderness areas. A main focus is to determine whether fire alone (without mechanical treatment) can restore sustainable forest ecosystems. Results will help answer questions about how WFU affects canopy mortality, fire spread over time, and landscape composition, structure and function. Mechanistic fire-ecosystem models will be used to evaluate landscape change and ecosystem function under a variety of WFU treatments and under different climate scenarios. |
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01-1-6-07: Assessing the value of mesoscale models in predicting fire danger |
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Jeanne Hoadley |
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Fine-scale weather data are becoming increasingly available for fire weather and fire danger forecasting to support tactical preparedness and prescribed fire planning. Unfortunately, techniques to implement the National Fire Danger Rating System (a key ingredient to fire preparedness) with short-range predictions of fine-scale weather do not exist. Research is aimed at integrating the National Fire Danger Rating System with fine-scale numerical weather predictions and testing it as a tool for predicting wildfire danger and prescribed-fire opportunities. Benefits from incorporating fine-scale weather information into existing models include improved fire preparedness and resource allocation during wildfires. |
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01-1-6-08: Predicting Lightning Risk |
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Sue Ferguson |
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Lightning causes most wildfires in the western United States and is a major cause of fire elsewhere. Simple predictions of Lightning Activity Level do not accurately determine fire ignition potential because most lightning is accompanied by significant precipitation. Scientists are adapting a methodology to assess the risk of dry lightning so that it can be incorporated into fire preparedness and planning. Fire weather forecasters will be able to use these results to improve predictions of lightning caused fire ignitions. Also, the algorithms can be applied to historical data, allowing assessments of dry lightning activity over time and space. Benefits include improved fire preparedness and resource allocation during the wildfire season and improved assessment of risk for longer term (5-10 year) planning horizons. |
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01-1-7-03: Using the NED decision support system to improve fuels management decision processes |
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Michael Rauscher |
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Recent fire history in the United States has increased the pressure on fire managers to show they are making ecologically sustainable, socially acceptable, and economically feasible decisions. The scope and complexity implicit in supporting decisions that directly affect fire management is unprecedented. Scientist efforts are directed at expanding the existing NED decision support system so that it can be used in fire management decisions. This modification will help managers to assess and reduce the risk of fire hazard to human life, reduce financial loss of property from a fire incident, and provide evaluation of the impact of various fuel manipulation/reduction methods on future fire behavior and ecosystem health and function. |
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01-1-7-06: Techniques for creating a national interagency process for predicting preparedness levels |
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Gerry Day |
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Currently, the National Interagency Coordination Center and all Geographic Area Coordination Centers utilize different methods to establish daily fire preparedness levels. None of these processes provides a complete and detailed assessment of risks and benefits associated with wildland fire and prescribed fire operations. Researchers will conduct an analysis that addresses the complexities of engineering a national preparedness level process as a first step toward developing such a system. |
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01-1-7-07: Fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator: completion of calibration for eastern forests, provisions for user training, and program maintenance |
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Gary Dixon |
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Forest managers can use the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) to provide quantitative evaluations, as well as visual presentations, of proposed fire management treatment alternatives. The FFE-FVS model predicts the effects of a possible fire on stand development. Currently FFE-FVS is an operational simulation model useful for forestland in the west and the Rocky Mountain Region. Researchers plan to adapt the model for use in the southeast (Ozark/Ouachita Highlands), provide training in FFE-FVS model for managers, planners and silviculturalists throughout the U.S., test and validate existing FFE-FVS relationships, support and further develop the FFE-FVS computer code, and provide hot-line user support to practitioners at field offices. |
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01-1-7-14: Decision Support Methods for Prescribed Fire |
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Donald MacGregor, |
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The development of a prescribed fire plan is a challenging problem that involves the consideration of a number of factors, including the natural resource management objectives to be met, the risks associated with escape, environmental quality objectives such as smoke management, and public/personnel safety. However, the concept of risk and uncertainty is poorly defined in the context of prescribed fire planning. Researchers contend that prescribed fire planning is inherently a problem of risk assessment and decision making under uncertainty. They will apply decision and risk science principles to prescribed fire decision making and planning, and develop a field oriented software prototype of a prescribed fire decision support tool based on these principles. |
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99-1-3-10: Incorporation of wildland fuels information into landscape scale land use and planning processes |
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Philip Omi |
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Efforts by Federal agencies to reduce the flammability of wildland fuels, especially in threatened areas and hazardous fuel types, using prescribed fire and mechanical treatments have been going on for years but on a relatively small (project by project) scale. Recent revisions in fire policy suggest the need for treatments covering much larger areas, i.e., at the landscape scale. This project is directed toward conducting a comprehensive, user oriented analysis of the literature and other relevant information on the problems associated with planning and implementing fuels management strategies at landscape scales. Results of this work will help to ensure that fuels and fire management activities at these larger scales are integrated into land use planning processes more fully. |
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99-1-3-16: Develop a landscape scale framework for Interagency wildland fuels management planning |
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Pat Lineback |
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Fire suppression has led to fuel accumulations, uncontrollable wildland fires, increased risk to human life and property, and the deterioration of fire dependent ecosystems. Although one of the strategies available for reducing fuel levels is the use of naturally ignited wildland fire, this option is seldom used because of risks to values in the wildland urban interface. Managers are unable to take advantage of all their alternatives because they lack tools for planning at the landscape scale and they lack information on fire benefits. Researchers will develop a GIS-based model that quantifies both the risks and benefits of fire across the landscape and allows managers to weigh the risks from fire against its longer benefits and the risks of continued fire suppression. This information will help managers develop strategic fire and fuels management plans. |
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99-1-3-28: Spatial and temporal analysis of lightning and fire occurrence in Rocky Mountain wilderness areas |
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Mathew Rollins |
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Lightning is the leading cause of wildfires in the western U.S. and Canada. However, research relating lightning occurrence and fire ignitions is rare. This research compares data on lightning location, timing, and density with data on fire occurrence and density, also taking into account vegetation type and topography, in the Gila/Aldo Leopold Wilderness Areas in New Mexico and the Selway-Bitteroot Wilderness Areas in Idaho/Montana. This work provides empirical evidence of the causal relationships that drive fire regimes in Rocky Mountain ecosystems and can help guide landscape-scale fuel treatments in each wilderness area. |
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98-1-5-03: Characterizing Historic and Contemporary Fire Regimes in the Lake States |
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David Cleland |
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The Upper Great Lakes States of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan comprise one of the most densely forested regions of the nation with 41% of the area (50.5 million acres) forested. Much of this forested acreage is considered commercial timberland and there are high expectations of continued resource development. At the same time, the area is one of four national centers for recreational or second home development. The unique and highly dispersed interface of wildland-human dominated environments in the region pose an extraordinary challenge to managing fire risk. Researchers are synthesizing available information on historic fire regimes, documenting how fire regimes have changed since European settlement, and mapping landscape ecosystems of varying susceptibility to disturbance across the region. Information resulting from this work will be made available in published form and over the Internet to aid managers in assessing wildfire susceptibilities of lands they are responsible for. |
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98-1-9-06: Modification and validation of fuel consumption models for shrub and forested lands in the SW, PNW, Rockies, Midwest, SE, and AK |
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Roger Ottmar |
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Land managers across the country are increasingly expected to use fire as a landscape-level fuel treatment mechanism to improve ecosystem health and reduce the likelihood of catastrophic fires. Planning and execution of these prescribed fires require managers to operate fuel and fire management decision-support systems that rely heavily on the ability to assess fuel consumption. Although a tremendous amount of research has gone into the development of fuel consumption models, little work has been directed toward shrub-dominated ecosystems (i.e. chaparral, sage, and palmetto/galberry) and to fuel consumption during the smoldering phase of fires. Through this effort scientists plan to develop and distribute a fuel consumption software product designed for national use. |
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